← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 1/29/2026
Water FractalTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 1/29/2026
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
1
0-1-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1432–1432
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1197
Q3 1413
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
